When does farsighted become near?
It's been ten years since I became an amateur futurist. Looking back, I've overestimated the short term more than once. Turn back time to 2010 and all I wanted was AR glasses. All I got was this sharing economy bike... Well, I may not have super vision today, but at least I have what feels like supercharged transportation abilities as Chinese cities have conquered the last mile.
Flash back to 2008 when I was still living in the US, two great things were happening in my life. Ray Kurzweil had just entered my life, and his vision of a Singularity had brought me out of nihilism. At the same time, I was absorbed in the rosy rhetoric of Obama and working on his campaign as deputy field organizer. Now, one thing I did fully understand was that Obama was an elegant speaker and not the ultra progressive I personally sought. However, I looked at the still relatively young social network phenomenon that was going on. I believed that these social networks would lead to an ever greater educated and progressive electorate. Once, I was even blessed with a fleeting noetic epiphany, a visceral sensation of pregnancy. The world was going to give birth to a global brain.
By 2016, it was clear that my short term prediction was a miserable failure. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and others all had calcified into confirmation bias portals and tools of corporate America. With a sitting president now Tweeting blatant lies on a daily basis, Americans have suffered fatigue and have entered an age of post-truth. 'Alternative facts' and wild challenges to the scientific consensus have become fashionable with the fake woke. Racism and isolationism has reared its ignorant head largely because it was easy to blame outsiders for job displacement. And the situation doesn't appear that much better here in China. TikTok has taken China, and the world by storm. This social network is appropriately referred to as 'fast food media' in China. Meanwhile, WeChat is not much more than a glorified instant messenger with mini-apps. Now all of these social networks can be curated by the user to get quality educational content and academic discussions, but by and large the net impact appears negative. I used to be drunk off Stephen Pinker's hyper optimistic Kool-Aid, but now I have sobered up to the fact that global IQ is dimming.
But not all is bad. Let's explore a few examples of human progress and where it might go next.
- Nearly a decade ago, Google botched the PR for their wearable heads up display, Google Glass. The ensuing fallout resulted in what could be looked at as an AR winter. Now in the past couple years we have seen some pretty neat tech demos in the field, but the smartphone paradigm still rules. Consider that technology paradigms are increasingly shorter and shorter, when AR finally goes mainstream, that paradigm may be eclipsed in less than a decade. As we face the increasingly intimate interface, what comes next after we are wearing it on our face? I predict AR maturity in 2024. That paradigm will rule for another half decade to decade. Then we stick it in our brains.
- In summer 2019, Elon Musk presented impressive progress on his Neuralink project. It is an invasive BCI that would allow us to keep up wit the pace of AI. It is a transhumanist dream. Musk states the technology would first be used to cure mental ailments in four years and then cognitive enhancement in eight years. The cripple shall inherit the earth. Most BCI projects start out to cure some human ailment. This is great for PR as many still fear transhumanism. As already observed, when technology allows someone to hear for the first time, it is emotional and profound. People who are already plugged in and have already experienced such a stunning expanse may be some of the most prepared to ingest expansion into new perceptions and sensations. Today, those of us fortunate enough, can turn to psychedelics to experience radically different cognitive spaces. Psychedelic states of mind may help us prepare to navigate the technologically expanded super mind. 70% chance we will have advanced BCI in eight years be it Neuralink or a different product.
- BCI might not be cheap, especially the installation. So who can afford it? Meanwhile, it might seem we have an insurmountable poverty problem. Do we? Look at the world's most populated nation, China. In just three decades, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty. President Xi has set a goal of eradicating all poverty in 2020. Can he do it? Well, when you have 1.4 billion people there's going to be someone who seeks to live in poverty. Forget about the village idiot and this is still a very ambitious goal. I love it, but I'd only give it about 20% chance of happening in 2020. Still, what China has done for poverty alleviation must be applauded. China walks to its own beat, and so it makes sense for it not to export its ideology. What has worked for Socialist China would not even be even palatable to the average American. However, there are other routes and branding that can be used. Many countries are debating and experimenting with universal basic income as technological disruption becomes more clear. Andrew Yang calls it the "Freedom Dividend". Language matters.
- AI will replace most jobs. It also may save us. Within the big data lies many yet to be discovered correlations that will increase productivity and save lives. In 2015, China introduced Made in China 2025 and an initiative to be the world leader in AI by 2030. Then the US went bonkers. The ensuing trade war and Huawei ban are being weathered by China, and she is actually growing stronger and more independent because of them. 75% chance Huawei will become the world's number one smartphone by the end of 2020 and while China has since abandoned the talk of AI dominance. I see no reason why the initiative's stated goal won't be achieved. 90% chance China will achieve AI global dominance three years earlier than stated. China seems to already be leading in some areas of AI, like quantum communications. China has a natural advantage in its large population. The 1.4 billion people provide a lot of big data. At least in the cities, the country has largely gone cashless. China's nationalized cryptocurrency is the logical next step. China is also at the forefront of smart cities, 5G, and a sharing economy which appears to me as an early IoT. All these converging technological revolutions will compliment each other and synergize.
- Now what about global existential threats? This all won't mean anything if we die out or are thrown back into the stone age by some catastrophe. Two major ones that keep me up at night are big asteroids and climate collapse. I think both America and China can play a role in mitigating these threats. Now I'm not going to call on Elon Musk for help here, because a one way trip to live in hardship on a dead planet while billions die back on earth is a completely unaesthetic answer. However, we are overdue for a critical asteroid impact and Trump's new Space Force might save us. One can hope the good old USA can come to the rescue as they use their big guns to play real life Asteroids. What a great way for the military industrial complex to get its fix while wowing the world. Blow up or divert any threatening asteroids.
- China and India both have over 1 billion polluting inhabitants, these two countries are also leading the world in reforestation. We've all seen the panda solar panel farm. China is in the midst of a green tech revolution with 300,000+ electric buses already in operation and is now rolling out a brilliant 4 way recycling program. However, this is not enough. I wish it to be a global effort, but don't be surprised if China unilaterally engages in geoengineering to advert climate collapse.
The world is still pregnant. More futurists are explicitly talking about an emerging global brain, and this may be why individuals are getting dumber. There are many theories of consciousness. One of them, the single mind theory states that once a small part integrates into a new larger whole, like a major evolutionary transition, then the qualia of the smaller unit is muted and the mind of the new super organism arises. I think this is what is happening on earth. We have already glimpsed the power of collective intelligence. UNU is an online swarm intelligence tool that has been used to predict Oscars, elections, and sport outcomes better than experts in the fields.
Every major evolutionary transition has been about cooperation. All of these converging technological revolutions are a great synergy. Before this new decade is up, we will be underestimating the short term. Then, I hope to wake up in the Global Brain.
For up to date information and perspectives from an American transhumanist in China, join my network on Linkedin.com/in/30steps or follow me on Twitter @JeremiahBilas
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